Polar opposites - The best & worst teams in the NBA

I re-discovered a great basketball stats site via a recent ESPN's True Hoop entry, 82games.com. This site is a dream for basketball stat loving geeks like me (or just anyone who wants to dive into statistical analysis of their favorite players or teams).

As I was digging through some of the stats, I decided to take a look at two teams that are complete polar opposites right now, the Boston Celtics & the Minnesota Timberwolves. What makes this even more interesting is that these two teams completed one of the biggest trades in recent NBA history this past offseason, involving Kevin Garnett & Al Jefferson (amongst others).

I'm going to focus on two stats in particular that stood out to me when looking at last year's numbers vs. this season's totals thus far - Shooting details, which looks at the type of shot taken or allowed (jump shot, close up, dunk, or tip) & shot clock usage, which looks at when shots are taken or allowed (0-10 sec used, 11-15, 16-20, and 21+). I'm going to contrast these specific items for the past two seasons, and hopefully help show some keys to success via the current Celtics makeup. This review will focus on defensive FG%.

2006-2007 Season
Boston finished 24-58
Shooting details - Defense
Type - Att - Def FG%:
Jump - 62% of shots - .439 FG%
Close - 32% of shots - .555 FG%
Dunk - 5% of shots - .932 FG%
Tip - 2% of shots - .560 FG%

Shot Clock Usage - Defense
Sec - Att - Def FG%
0-10 Sec - 37% of shots - .562 FG%
11-15 Sec - 25% of shots - .490 FG%
16-20 Sec - 24% of shots - .464 FG%
21+ Sec - 15% of shots - .422 FG%

2007-2008 Season
Boston sits at 33-6
Shooting details - Defense
Type - Att - Def FG%:
Jump - 73% of shots - .385 FG%
Close - 21% of shots - .555 FG%
Dunk - 4% of shots - .947 FG%
Tip - 2% of shots - .553 FG%

Shot Clock Usage - Defense
Sec - Att - Def FG%
0-10 Sec - 35% of shots - .489 FG%
11-15 Sec - 28% of shots - .480 FG%
16-20 Sec - 22% of shots - .413 FG%
21+ Sec - 15% of shots - .367 FG%

Year over Year Variances (Blue is an improvement, red is a decline):
Shooting details - Defense
Type - Att - Def FG%:
Jump - 11% variance - (.054 FG%)
Close - (11% variance) - .000 FG%
Dunk - (1% variance) - .015 FG%
Tip - 0% variance - (.007 FG%)

Shot Clock Usage - Defense
Sec - Att - Def FG%
0-10 Sec - 2% variance - (.073 FG%)
11-15 Sec - 3% variance - (.010 FG%)
16-20 Sec - (2% variance) - (.051 FG%)
21+ Sec - 0% variance - (.055 FG%)

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2006-2007 Season
Minnesota finished 32-50
Shooting details - Defense
Type - Att - Def FG%:
Jump - 65% of shots - .439 FG%
Close - 28% of shots - .565 FG%
Dunk - 5% of shots - .922 FG%
Tip - 2% of shots - .500 FG%

Shot Clock Usage - Defense
Sec - Att - Def FG%
0-10 Sec - 37% of shots - .550 FG%
11-15 Sec - 25% of shots - .492 FG%
16-20 Sec - 24% of shots - .476 FG%
21+ Sec - 14% of shots - .414 FG%

2007-2008 Season
Minnesota sits at 6-34
Shooting details - Defense
Type - Att - Def FG%:
Jump - 66% of shots - .449 FG%
Close - 26% of shots - .574 FG%
Dunk - 5% of shots - .947 FG%
Tip - 2% of shots - .525 FG%

Shot Clock Usage - Defense
Sec - Att - Def FG%
0-10 Sec - 40% of shots - .559 FG%
11-15 Sec - 25% of shots - .511 FG%
16-20 Sec - 23% of shots - .476 FG%
21+ Sec - 12% of shots - .421 FG%

Year over Year Variances (Blue is an improvement, red is a decline):
Shooting details - Defense
Type - Att - Def FG%:
Jump - 1% variance - .010 FG%
Close - (2% variance) - .009 FG%
Dunk - 0% variance - .025 FG%
Tip - 0% variance - .025 FG%

Shot Clock Usage - Defense
Sec - Att - Def FG%
0-10 Sec - 3% variance - .009 FG%
11-15 Sec - 0% variance - .019 FG%
16-20 Sec - (1% variance) - .000 FG%
21+ Sec - (2% variance) - .007 FG%

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So you're probably asking what all this means & how it can help your fantasy team. Let me answer those, one at a time.

-Simply put, defense wins games. The Celtics basically lowered their FG% against across the board this season, and are forcing an average of 11% more jumpshots than last season's team. Garnett's impact has been more than just his incredible energy & wonderfully diverse offensive game; he has impacted the game on the defensive end as well...and you throw in Rajon Rondo, with his aggressive PG defense, and Kendrick Perkins, who is doing an adequate job holding down the middle, and you have a winning combination. The variances between this season's Celtics vs. this season's Timberwolves team is also very telling; the Celtics defense has a 0.070% lower FG% against during the first ten seconds of an opposition's possession...that adds up over time, both in points, and ultimately, wins.

-This doesn't really mean too much for fantasy owners out there, but if you're playing in a head to deep head league with multiple bench spots (meaning you have multiple lineup options on any given night), you might want to consider sitting that fringe starting player when he plays the Celtics. On the flip side, if you have players going against the Timberwolves, get them in your lineup immediately.

I know this is a little different than my previous entries, but I'll periodically be mixing this type of statistical analysis in with the regular fantasy sport entries. Thanks to 82games.com for their deep pool of player stats.

Until next time...