Fantasy Baseball Draft Analysis - Greener on the Other Side Expert League

I recently had the pleasure to take part in an Expert League draft sponsored by our friends at Greener on the Other Side. The league setup is the standard 12-team, 5×5 league. Rosters include C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 OF, 2 Util, 9 P and 5 bench spots. Thanks to Adam at Newsday, the entire draft results are available here.

The expert league participants are:

Adam Ronis of Newsday
Jordan Frank of Roto Rob
Brad Stewart of MLB Front Office
Geoff Stein of Mock Draft Central
Mike Sessa and Chris Corcione of Pseudo Sports
Rudy Gamble of Razzball
Eric Stashin of Roto Professor
Sean Salsbery of Warning Track Power
Ken Mathe (that's me) of Roto Advice
Arnie The Regular Guy
Jay and Brett of Greener On Other Side

Here is how my draft went (which wasn’t at all like I expected):

1 (1) Álex Rodríguez

The first overall pick; I can pick anyone in the entire fantasy baseball world…and what do I do? Make the obvious selection. I’ve never had the #1 pick before, so this honestly caught me by surprise & caused me to develop an entirely “on the fly” draft strategy as we went along.

Arod is awesome, and even if he regresses by 20% or so from last year’s performance, he’s still the #1 player available.

2 (24) Russell Martin

Getting the #1 pick was great, but getting only 1 of the top 23 players was tough. Seeing player after player going off the board was painful, but I got one of the guys I wanted with these two picks in Martin. I think I picked him a little earlier than I normally would have, but he absolutely would not have been available the next time around at pick 48.

3 (25) Carlos Lee

I was wavering between Lee & Rios with this pick, and ultimately picked the guy who has been Mr. Consistency for the past few years. He’ll get me a .300 avg, 30 Hr, 100 RBI, and 10 SB. Not bad from my third round pick.

I was hoping to get any of the 5 guys who ended up getting drafted before my two picks, but they went off the board in the following order leading up to my 2^nd round pick – Upton, Phillips, Teixeira, Soriano & Beltran. Oh well…at this point, I’m feeling pretty good with my draft.

4 (48) Hunter Pence

I really wanted to get Markakis, Hart, Hafner, Byrnes, or Hamels with this pick, but they were all off the board when it finally got back to me. I think Pence is going to be an excellent major leaguer, and should put up 25 HR & 10 SB this year, so it’s not a bad selection.

5 (49) Carlos Guillén

I picked Guillen hoping to put him at SS, although some of my later selections changed this strategy. I like Guillen’s place in the Tigers lineup & his SS / 1B eligibility. He should also give me a low double digit steal total – good value at this point.

6 (72) Jonathan Papelbon

I never pick a top closer in the draft, so I figured why not. I was really hoping to pick my ace SP in this round, but all of my favorite SP targets were already off the board; the best remaining were Lincecum, Dice K, Smoltz, and Harang, and I thought Papelbon gave me more value here.

7 (73) Matt Kemp

I was looking to get a OF with speed & upside at this selection; Kemp certainly fits the bill. I was hoping Victorino or Chris Young (OF) would fall to me at this pick, but they both went in the 6^th round. If Kemp ends up splitting time this year, this will end up being a reach pick; but Kemp truly has .300, 25 HR, 25 SB potential, and he was too tantalizing to pass up. I also didn’t think he’d be around come pick 96.

8 (96) Ben Sheets

OK, I really needed some starting pitching at this point. Sheets always ends up disappointing, but I was willing to roll the dice at this point. If healthy, he has the ability to end up being a top 10 SP, but it’s a risk. We’ll see…

9 (97) James Shields

After taking risky Ben Sheets the pick before, I picked a much safer starter here. He might not get as many wins as some of the top SP, but he gets K’s, will have a low WHIP, and is still young. Amazingly, since I was so focused on SP here, I missed out on picking Alex Gordon, who was selected two picks later at pick 99 by MLB Front Office. Stupid tunnel vision…I think Gordon’s going to break out big time this season.

10 (120) Dan Uggla

I was still looking for a 2B, and this is the point I decided to go with a HR heavy strategy. I was wavering on Uggla, Kendrick, and Kelly Johnson, but I think Uggla will be very solid this season. I see his average improving some from last year, and he could hit 35 or more HR. Solid from the middle infield, and good value at pick 120.

11 (121) Jacoby Ellsbury

At this point, I still didn’t have a top steals guy, so I reached a little for Ellsbury. If he is the full time CF this season (a big IF), he could get 35-50 steals this year; and hit .300 in the process. Nice but risky…

12 (144) J.J. Hardy

This pick was just about value at the position. All of the 1B I was targeting were gone by this point, so I decided to go with Hardy at SS / MI & put Guillen at 1B. He’s not a superstar, but he should be good for a .275+ Avg & 20 HR.

13 (145) A.J. Burnett

Are you starting to see a trend with my staff…that’s right, I have a few huge question marks. Sheets & Burnett was both extremely talented, but they both have #1 stuff. Burnett was completely dominant last season when he was healthy, so I’m hoping for a repeat, and a full year of heath. If these guys either stink or get injured, I’ll be desperate for pitching.

14 (168) Justin Upton

Upton is going to be good. It’s that easy.

15 (169) Khalil Greene

Another value pick; he should put up 30 HR, and matched with Uggla, gives me the most powerful middle infield in the league. This is helpful, since I have a mediocre HR 1B in Guillen (although he show good spring power #s).

16 (192) Brian Wilson

I was looking for more saves at this pick; I think Wilson will be solid.

17 (193) Rick Ankiel

Good value at this pick; he should be an easy bet for 25+ HR in a full season.

18 (216) Matt Garza

Here is a starter will good upside. He has #1 starter stuff, but he’s still young.

19 (217) Joba Chamberlain

I was looking at Chamberlain for a few rounds leading up to this selection. Even if he pitches out of the bullpen all season, he will help me in ERA, WHIP & K’s. I saw this as an excellent value pick, especially if he moves into the rotation at some point this season.

20 (240) Nick Johnson

I took a chance here hoping Johnson would beat out Young for the Nationals 1B job, but it looks like the risk will pay off. He is an excellent hitter, who could very easily put up .300, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 100 Run season if healthy, which would be great output from my CI. One of my top sleeper picks.

21 (241) Jason Kubel

Kubel might share time with Craig Monroe, but he’s close to breaking out big time. Good value at pick 241.

22 (264) Justin Duchscherer

People have been ignoring Duchscherer in most drafts I’ve taken part in this year, but he could be a very solid selection. He began his career as a starter, he was successful as a reliever, and he’s still young.

23 (265) Jeremy Guthrie

I’m not overly thrilled with this pick, but I was looking for another SP, and he was one of the best left. Should be solid, and he’s the O’s #1.

24 (288) Akinori Iwamura

Basically, I drafted Akinori due to his upcoming 2B / 3B eligibility. I was looking for an adequate backup, and I could do worse at this point in the draft.

25 (289) Bronson Arroyo

Innings eating SP.

26 (312) Tom Gordon

Should get me a few saves while Lidge is on the DL.

27 (313) Richie Sexson

Nobody wants him, so why not. He could be good for 30+ HR if he finds his swing. If not, this is a very low risk. I expect a solid season if he stays healthy.

28 (336) Masa Kobayashi

I’m an Indians fan, and this guy is supposed to be good. Plus I like his name.

My roster to start the year is:

C Russell Martin (LAD - C)
1B Carlos Guillén (Det - 1B,SS)
2B Dan Uggla (Fla - 2B)
3B Álex Rodríguez (NYY - 3B)
SS J.J. Hardy (Mil - SS)
CI Nick Johnson (Was - 1B)
MI Khalil Greene (SD - SS)
OF Carlos Lee (Hou - OF)
OF Hunter Pence (Hou - OF)
OF Matt Kemp (LAD - OF)
OF Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos - OF)
OF Justin Upton (Ari - OF)
Util Rick Ankiel (StL - OF)
Util Jason Kubel (Min - OF)

P Jonathan Papelbon (Bos - P)
P Ben Sheets (Mil - P)
P James Shields (TB - P)
P Brian Wilson (SF - P)
P Joba Chamberlain (NYY - P)
P Justin Duchscherer (Oak - P)
P Jeremy Guthrie (Bal - P)
P Tom Gordon (Phi - P)
P Masa Kobayashi (Cle - P)

BN Akinori Iwamura (TB - 3B)
BN Richie Sexson (Sea - 1B)
BN A.J. Burnett (Tor - P)
BN Matt Garza (TB - P)
BN Bronson Arroyo (Cin - P)

I think my two biggest weaknesses are SB & my entire pitching staff; we'll soon find out how competitive my team will be against the other experts.

That’s all for now. I’ll be providing league updates at a minimum of bi-weekly during the season, so keep reading. Please feel free to leave your thoughts / feedback on my team & draft.

And in case you missed it, you can check out analysis from some of the other contenders here.

Until next time...

Greener on the Other Side - Fantasy Baseball Expert League

I was recently invited to join an expert league, with some of the best baseball bloggers out there. While I'm finishing up my analysis on the draft, which took place on Monday, I thought it would be nice to give you all links to their feedback & analysis (please note, all of these sites are linked on the right under "Great Fantasy Sports Sites").

-Rudy's analysis (from Razzball)
-Jay & Brett's analysis (Greener on the Other Side - the league commishes)
-Eric's analysis (Roto Professor)
-Chris' analysis (Psuedo Sports)
-David's analysis (Baseball Happenings)
-Adam's analysis (Newsday)
-My analysis (Roto Advice)

I'll be updating this list as the other participants analyze their picks, and I'll have my thoughts posted by tomorrow.

I'm looking forward to being part of the league, and thanks to Greener on the Other Side for setting it up. I love this time of year!

Last Updated - 3/29/08 / 5:54PM

Fantasy Baseball Draft Analysis Cont'd: Rounds 7-14 - Fantasy Gameday Keeper

This is a continuation of my Fantasy Gameday Keeper League draft analysis post from last week. I know this is kind of a long post, so I'm hoping I won't lose your interest mid-post. If that happens, I'd suggest breaking it down into smaller bite-size morsels; mmmm...bite-size morsels of Roto Advice goodness.

My round 7-14 picks were as follows:

Round (overall pick) Player (player picked before / after)

7 (82) D Young (OF) - (N Swisher/ J Bay)
-This was the first of two picks I made completely disregarding the walks category (intentional or not, it still happened). Young's current ADP is 106, which is about the end of the 9th round for a 12 team league. Given that he walks very little, his value probably should have pushed down a little in a league like this (where walks count just as much as HR).

So maybe I reached a little for Young, but boy, does he have upside. He's still only 22, and he was universally viewed as the #1 prospect heading into last season. Considering he hit .288 with 13 HR, 93 RBI, and 10 SB in his rookie season, I can't help but think things will only get better from here. He played very consistently as well, hitting well against both left handers & right handers, along with hitting well before & after the all star break.

I view Young as a poor-man's version of Corey Hart or Hunter Pence, although he arguably has just as much, if not more, upside than them both & could outproduce each of them this year. He's young, strong, fast, and has a great major league career ahead of him in Minnesota. His lack of walks will hurt me a little, but I was willing to take a chance on him given his enormous upside.

Pecota - .294/17 HR/81 RBI/14 SB

8 (87) A Gordon (1B / 3B) - (B Jenks / F Hernandez)
-This was another high risk / high reward pick on my part. Some of the third basemen left on the board at this point were Gordon, Beltre, Lowell, Encarnacion, Longoria, and Kouzmanoff; so given my options, I think Gordon was the best choice, especially since this is a keeper league (I didn't seriously consider Longoria at this point in the draft).

Gordon had a very slow start to his rookie season last year, after the jump to the majors from AA ball. Although he struggled to find his groove, the Royals stuck with him & he rewarded them with 15 HR & 14 SB; unspectacular but solid. As the season wore on, he seemed to get more comfortable & more confident; this is evident by the 8 HR he hit in the final 186 AB over the last two months of the season. I'm expecting a minimum output of the Pecota projections below, although I see him as a major breakout candidate. Upside - .280 / 25 HR / 90 RBI / 25 SB; if he goes 20/20, I'll be pleased...especially since I know there is much more to come.

Pecota - .269/18 HR/75 RBI/16 SB

9 (106) S Kazmir (SP) - (B Wagner / A Beltre)
-At this point, I wanted to start building my rotation with another solid starter; little did I know that I would be able to grab a 1A starter in the 9th round in Kazmir. I think his spring injury might have scared off some managers, but with an ADP of 68, or late 6th round in a 12 team league, I saw this as an immense value pick at this point. Kazmir was simply lights out in the second half of last season, putting up a line of 94 IP/2.39 ERA/1.14 WHIP/124 K/31 BB/8 W. What makes it even better, is he's 24 years old, which makes him a great candidate to improve even further. Although I'm a little nervous about the injury risk, he's still young & along with Smoltz, should be able to give me a solid 1-2 punch in my rotation at a much lower cost than some of the other top pitchers.

Pecota - 195 IP/29 GS/197 K/3.24 ERA/1.23 WHIP/13 W

10 (111) H Kendrick (2B) - (Y Gallardo / P Burrell)
-Walks be damned! That should be by team name in this league.

I picked Kendrick right around his current ADP of 117, but again, his value will be slightly lower in this league since walks matter...and he NEVER walks. OK, to his defense, he did walk 9 times last season in 338 AB, but boy, can he ever HIT.

He's been described as a future batting champion ever since he entered the majors, and those projections might not be far off. He's never hit less than .317 in any of his 5 or so seasons in the minors, and he's hit .288 & .322 in his first two partial seasons in the big leagues. He's also been consistent in his lack of walks & with his ability to put the ball in play; he hasn't walked more than 24 times in any full season in professional ball.

I see his upside this season at around .325/15 HR/25 SB, which is a nice line in the middle infield & would make up for his lack of walks. Even if he hits in the .280-.300 range with 10/10 output, I'll be happy since I think his best is yet to come. Overall, I was happy to fill my MI position with Howie.

Pecota - .287/14 HR/73 RBI/10 SB

11 (130) J Shields (SP) - (M Corpas / R Soriano)
-I was quite happy to be able to grab a pitcher of Shields' quality in the 11th round. I view him as a proven commodity, and a low risk for any regression. Shields is a control fiend, and proved he can strike guys out at an above average rate as well. I think the Rays are a team on the rise, so his wins will likely increase as the team improves. He’s a good third addition to my rotation, and another solid value given his ADP of 116.

A general note - I was pleased to get solid pitching value in the mid rounds, since I focused on hitting & didn't pick one of the top 10 pitchers early in the draft.

Pecota - 190 IP/29 GS/148K/3.88 ERA/1.24 WHIP/12 W

12 (135) J Soria (RP) - (J Hamilton / R Hill)
-I thought it was about time to take my first closer, and Soria is a young stud with major upside. The negative? He plays for the Royals, so he probably won't get too many chances this season.

After the all star break last season, he pitched 32+ IP, with 5 BB, 33 K, 2.78 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and only a .183 BAA - good stuff. I still expect 30+ saves out of Soria this year, and he'll certainly help my team in ERA, WHIP, and K's.

Pecota - 75 IP/36 SV/3.16 ERA/1.19 WHIP/81 K

13 (154) S Drew (SS) - (J Peralta / I Snell)
-I realized during this draft that SS is not the deepest position around this year. This pick was again based on upside, and the realization that Drew is a good big league hitter who was just too unlucky last season. With Peralta going off the board the pick before this, I was down to a handful of targets at SS - Drew, Greene & Escobar; since at least two other teams didn't have a starting SS at this point, I felt I needed to pull the trigger on who I viewed as the best SS left - Drew.

I think he'll surprise some people this season by having a good year; many people forget that he hit .316 in 200+ AB the previous year. He has a good eye for the ball, walking 60 times last season, and he also chipped in 12 HR & 9 SB (in 9 attempts). Even if he hits the conservative Pecota projections, I'll be satisfied. And he's young & still has major upside, so this pick was a no-brainer at this point in the draft.

Seeing how Kelly wasn't happy after the pick, chances are Drew wouldn't have been available when I drafted next time around.

Pecota - .270/18 HR/64 RBI/6 SB

14 (159) A Wainwright (SP) - (R Ibanez / R Betancourt)
-I couldn't pass up a starter that I see as a possible breakout candidate this season. In the second half of last season, he put up the following line - 15 GS/99 IP/2.71 ERA/1.25 WHIP/77K/7 W. I expect him to carry that performance over into this season, as it appears he's re-adjusted to being a starter. The Pecota line is quite conservative, but that would even be acceptable from my 4th starter, especially given Wainwright's youth. Overall, a solid pick to fill out my rotation.

Pecota - 175 IP/27 GS/4.09 ERA/1.37 WHIP/120 K/10 W

Amazingly, I'm only about half done with my analysis. I'll probably take a look at the rest of my drafted team next week, so stay tuned.

In other upcoming posts, I'll be highlighting some web based research tools that can be used to help you during the baseball season, along with re-visiting the world of fantasy basketball for a brief moment.

With fantasy basketball playoffs just around the corner (for H2H leagues), I'll be highlighting waiver wire or fringe players that can either make or break your season - players that are hot, and players who are not-so-hot.

Until next time...

Fantasy Baseball Draft Analysis - Fantasy Gameday Keeper

I'm involved in a keeper league commissioned by Kelly over at Fantasy Gameday. It's a 6x6 league, with the extra categories being walks & holds; each of which threw some new strategy into the draft. A few other interesting tidbits:

-12 teams - roto
-27 man rosters
-We can keep up to 5 major league players
-We'll also hold a minor league draft to select 6 players, from which we can keep 3
-We cannot keep any players drafted in the top 3 rounds
-Keeper inflation is 3 rounds from the prior year's draft
-My team name is Splitting Headaches (I really didn't think you'd care, but why not)

This is going to be a very competitive league, as the draft proved. I will be providing a more in depth analysis on the draft in an upcoming post, but below is a quick summary of my top 6 picks (also in the comments section of this post at Fantasy Gameday).

My top 6 picks were:

Round (overall pick) Player (player picked before / after)

1 (10) C Utley (2B) - (D Ortiz / R Howard)
-I was happy to end up with Utley with the 10th overall pick, even though he doesn't walk as much as some of the other top guys; it’s always comforting getting the middle infield addressed with studs early in the draft.

2 (15) C Crawford (OF) - (P Fielder / G Sizemore)
-Crawford is the first of the picks I might have done differently in a draft do-over. This is the first time I’ve ever drafted Crawford, after many seasons of wanting him & anticipating a “breakout” season (read - more HR). I really think this will be the year he shows more power & rbi’s, but he walks about 1/3 as often as the pick 16th pick, Sizemore, who went one pick later. Grady might not steal as often as Carl, but he’s shown proven power & his walks have increased substantially each of the past few seasons. Oh well, I hope Crawford becomes a top 10 player this year & gives me a shot.

3 (34) R Martin (C) - (B Roberts / T Tulowitzki)
-Even though this is a one catcher league, I couldn’t pass up Martin with my third round selection; I just didn’t think he’d be there the next time around & he was one of the top players on my board at that point. He walks plenty, he’ll hit HR, and get more steals than any catcher - I’m keeping my fingers crossed that he stays healthy & gets 15-20 steals. NOTE - I almost pulled the trigger on Tulowitzki, but I thought he'd be there when it came back around to me at pick 39; sucked for me.

4 (39) A Ramirez (3B) - (C Sabathia / A Dunn)
-I was fine with Ramirez at 39 overall; I think he’ll improve this season and he’s solid all around.

5 (58) C Pena (1B) - (C Guillen / J Lackey)
-I felt like I reached a little for Carlos Pena at 58th overall, although his high walk ratio makes him more valuable in this league than a normal 5×5. I didn’t have a huge power guy yet, and I felt like he’d give me 80%-90% of the performance of Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard at a significantly discounted price.

6 (63) J Smoltz (P) - (C Jones / I Kinsler)
-With my 6th round pick, I reached some for the grandpa of the pitching studs by taking John Smoltz; although living in Atlanta & following the Braves pretty closely, I know for a fact that he’s still an awesome pitcher and will give me wins, a low ERA & WHIP, and get K’s; I certainly could have done worse. And since I was able to get Kazmir (9th round - good value in my mind), Shields (11th round), and Wainwright (14th round) to round out my rotation, I think I’ll be very competitive in the pitching categories (I have consistency all around in Smoltz, K’s & upside in Kazmir, K’s & WHIP in Shields, and upside all around in Wainwright).

I had an interesting draft (that’s a kind way to say I wasn’t all that happy with the end results). Even though I knew that walks & holds were add’l categories, I somehow disregarded the walks addition until I was a few rounds in (which will probably come back to haunt me during the season).

Overall, I’m probably a mid-pack team with some upside with my current roster. With some wise waiver wire pickups, I might have a shot to be more competitive.

I'll be providing more in depth analysis in an upcoming post, along with keeping readers updated on what's going on throughout the season.

What are your thoughts?