Random Thoughts - Week 17 of NFL Season

A few random thoughts for a Sunday morning, which happens to be the final week of the NFL regular season...

-If you're in a fantasy league that plays it's championship this week (Week 17), either convince the commissioner to change the schedule to end the season sooner next year or find a new league. If you're a commissioner of a league set up like this, change it up next season or expect another championship game between teams starting Charlie Whitehurst & Mark Brunell at QB. Wow, and just think...if the championship game were a week or two back, it could have been Brady against Vick.

-The Miami Heat continue to put up wins (as much as I wish they didn't).

-A totally unrelated story, the Cleveland Cavs continue to pile up the losses (as much as I wish they didn't).

-Speaking of the Cavs, rumor has it that they've shown an interest is Andray Blatche of the Wizards. Depending on what the Cavs were to give up to acquire him, I'd probably be in favor of this deal. He's a young player with a lot of talent, although he's had a bit off the court baggage this season (although in his defense, who doesn't get into a nightclub fight every now & then?).

-A lot of NFL coaching changes might go down in the next few days; I'd estimate as many as 10 teams might have new coaches next season (if there is a next season). Let's hope teams don't continue to be too short-sighted & give some head coaches time to make a difference & implement a winning culture (I'm talking to you, Cleveland Browns).

Good luck to all the fantasy teams starting Mark Brunell & Joe McKnight for their championship games!

Fantasy Gameday Keeper - Football season in review

Today I'm going to take a look back at my football season in the Fantasy Gameday Keeper league. First a little background:

-League setup & commissioned by Kelly from Fantasy Gameday
-Managers can protect 5 players going into the offseason & keep 3 each year
-Rotisserie format, which was the first football league of it's sort I've been a part of
-Similar point structure to other leagues out there, with bonus point totals for big games through the air, on the ground, and receiving; new next season will be receptions at 0.5 point per
-10 team league
-Lineup includes:

1 QB
3 WR
2 RB
1 TE
1 K
1 DEF
6 Bench

I started analyzing my draft back in September in this post, but it's interesting how your pre-season view can sometimes differ substantially from your post-season take. My draft went as follows:

Round	Pick	Player	Pos
1	(8)	Willie Parker	RB
2	(13)	Rudi Johnson	RB
3	(28)	Roy Williams	WR
4	(33)	Antonio Gates	TE
5	(48)	Brandon Jacobs	RB
6	(53)	Braylon Edwards	WR
7	(68)	Vincent Jackson	WR
8	(73)	Santonio Holmes	WR
9	(88)	Matt Leinart	QB
10	(93)	Pittsburgh	DEF
11	(108)	Brandon Jackson	RB
12	(113)	Neil Rackers	K
13	(128)	Matt Schaub	QB
14	(133)	D.J. Hackett	WR
15	(148)	Minnesota	DEF

Best Picks:
-Braylon Edwards in the 6th round at 53 overall is a no-brainer. He had a breakout season, and being a lifelong Browns fan having bias towards their players finally paid off. In our league setup, Braylon finished as the #3 performing receiver, behind Moss & TO...not bad company. Whether it's DA (Derek Anderson) or Brady Quinn behind center in 2008, I expect his performance to carry over. I do think he'll start a little slower if it's Quinn, although right now it appears DA is safe in Cleveland for another year, meaning Braylon should be consistent from start to finish.

I'm certainly going to hold him as one of my keepers, and he turned in the type of season I expected from my highest drafted WR (Roy Williams @ 28).

-Although the injuries frustrated some during the year, Brandon Jacobs ended up having a solid season. He was the 48th pick overall, and the 22nd running back selected. Even with the injuries & surprisingly low TD production (4 rushing & 2 receiving), he still finished 18th at the RB position.

I'm likely going to keep him going into next season, although the Giants surprising wealth of youth at RB has me questioning how much of the load he'll carry in 2008. Derrick Ward played very well when filling in this season, and he was more of a receiving threat out of the backfield. Ahmad Bradshaw came out of nowhere (actually he was drafted in the 7th round last year out of Marshall) to put up one big game during the regular season & awesome performances during the post-season. He's shown he's more than simply a "change of pace" back...he can make tacklers miss & carry the load if necessary.

Picks that weren't totally wasted:
-I was also relatively happy with the Parker pick, although he only scored twice during the season & missed the last few games with an injury. He finished as the 11th best running back, although this was ahead of the more highly drafted Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, and Shaun Alexander...so I guess I can't complain too much.

Santonio Holmes started slow & missed some time with injuries, but he still outproduced Roy Williams in yards, touchdowns & fantasy points this year (even though Holmes played only one add'l game).

Regrettable Picks:
-Where do I start...Rudi Johnson tops this list. His season wasn't just plagued with injuries, it was plagued with ineffectiveness when he was on the field. Kenny Watson stepped in & proved it wasn't all the surrounding cast with two 100+ yard games (although they were against the Jets & Browns). Rudi averaged a woeful 2.9 yards per carry, and scored only 4 times on the year. Sadly, even when he wasn't injured, I had him riding my bench much of the season.

I am holding him as one of my 5 protected, but it's unlikely I'll keep him going into next season. Not only am I unsure about his ability to produce next year, he's also got to compete against the Kenny's, Kenny Watson & Kenny Irons, for playing time. Irons was a 2nd round pick last year from Auburn who missed the season due to injury. I'm not saying Rudi can't bounce back, but it might take a change of scenery & a fresh start.

-Vincent Jackson's season didn't turn out like I expected. Many experts had him labeled as a sleeper going into this season. What wasn't to like? He was effectively the #1 receiver in a solid offense, who finished out the prior year in strong fashion & stands 6'5 with very good athleticism. Boy was I wrong (during the regular season); he never broke out like expected, and it only got worse when Chambers arrived. After playing well in the playoffs, I think he's positioned nicely to break out next year...but that didn't help any managers out this season.

-Matt Leinart...this one hurts the most. Guess who was picked immediately after Matt? He's one of my favorite QB's in real life...he's dated an American Idol winner & a blond singer (who he vacationed with in Mexico)...obviously I missed out on Tony Romo to take the disappointing Leinhart.

I really thought the Cardinals offense was primed to break out this season, and I really didn't see Warner as competition to Matt; I thought he'd serve as a great mentor to Matt as he became a big time QB. Boy, was I wrong. Matt stunk up the place...then started sharing time with Warner, then got hurt & missed the rest of the season. Romo just went on to have the 2nd best fantasy QB season, behind superhero Brady. Looking at the bright side of things, I picked up Kurt Warner during the season, who ended up having the 10th best year at the QB position...so it could have been worse.

Waiver Wire moves during the season:
I picked up some solid players throughout the year, which kept me in the hunt till the end. Some of the better ones include:

-Picking up Dwayne Bowe immediately after the draft
-Picking up David Garrard in October
-Picking up Kurt Warner in October
-Picking up Mason Crosby in November

I also didn't make any regrettable drops during the year; either I just made good moves or I was too passive with my roster management, and missed out on some of the good players by being conservative.

Looking Back:
Given the lack of a major stud in my lineup, I was pleased with my 3rd place finish. The final standings are below (I am the Splitting Headaches):

Rank	Team	Points	Pts Change	Waiver	Moves
1	BRIWILEY	1767	89	5	78
2	The Fighting Amish	1730	102	9	19
3	Splitting Headaches	1709	88	2	19
4	Corn of Kolb	1685	68	4	9
5	mancrush(on(tombrady	1590	93	10	26
6	Headbangers	1540	55	7	15
7	Kellysmom	1475	107	6	26
8	The Wounded Healers	1443	81	1	6
9	Romo's Homos	1338	79	3	5
10	winabango	1333	93	8	34

Most frustrating for me was the Leinart over Romo pick. I was ready to click to select Romo, but I just thought last year's playoff snafu might carry over into this season. At the last second, I picked Leinart, and regretted it from day one. The difference in points between Romo & my QB's combined would have been more than enough to allow me to win the league; but that's the fun of playing...the "what could have been".

Overall, I was happy with the year my team had & I'm looking forward to next season.

Please feel free to add any comments / thoughts / feedback of your own. Thanks for reading!

Fantasy Football Roster Analysis - Fantasy Gameday Keeper (Points League)

Recently, I took part in my first fantasy football draft of the season. This is a points league, set up by Kelly from Fantasygameday.net. This will be the first non-head to head football league I've been a part of, and I'm looking forward to an interesting season. This will also be a keeper league, where we'll be holding on to 3 players at the end of the season. The setup is as follows:

QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
WR
TE
K
DEF
6 Bench spots

This draft went like most fantasy drafts I've taken part in - I got a few guys that I thought would be gone by the time I drafted them, I reached for a few others, and I had a few of those Doh! moments where I was getting ready to pull the trigger on a guy when the team ahead of me picked him away from under my nose (Stupid Flanders!).

Below is my draft with some quasi-analysis....although I'm bound to be biased, since this is my team.

Round (Overall Pick) Player, Position:
1 (8) Willie Parker, RB
Even given the keeper league setup, I was hoping Shaun Alexander would fall to me at pick 8 (he ended up going at 7). I know, I know, he's already peaked & he's going to end up sharing caries with Maurice Morris at some point in the not too distant future...but I just have a good feeling about Shaun this season.

OK, on to my Parker analysis - he was the best player on the board. The picks immediately after Parker were Bush, Maroney, & Westbrook; I think Parker is absolutely in a different league than those guys (right now from a fantasy perspective). He's proven he can put up excellent numbers, and I don't see any reason why he won't have another great year.

Picks around this selection - (6) F Gore, (7) S Alexander, (8) PARKER, (9) R Bush, (10) L Maroney

2 (13) Rudi Johnson, RB
It seems like I end up with Johnson on at least one team every year. It's not that I don't like his solid performance, but I am always looking for a reason to take somebody else. I did consider the fact that Kenny Irons is injured & is out for the season (he was drafted in the 3rd round to take a few carries & allow Johnson to get some rest) when making this selection.

To be honest, I was ready to select Chad Johnson with this pick (who went 3 picks later)...until I read a blurb saying he punched a teammate at practice. I've already owned Randy Moss & TO over the last few years, so that was enough to scare me off. That and the fact that you need two top running backs to effectively compete in most football leagues. There was nothing wrong with this pick, and he should have another solid season.

Picks around this selection - (11) B Westbrook, (12) C Palmer, (13) R JOHNSON, (14) T Henry, (15) S Smith

3 (28) Roy Williams, WR
Man, that wait from pick 13 to pick 28 felt like a few weeks. I saw top players keep dropping off the board, all while trying to determine what to do with my next pick. I'm normally a fan of waiting a little while for my starting QB, so that left backup RB (not important yet, unless a top player dropped), a #1 WR (very important), or a TE (Gates). I guess I also considered for a moment taking a DEF or K here also, but then I thankfully gained my sanity back (which doesn't happen very often).

I felt good about getting R Williams as my #1 receiver. I was really targeting Larry Fitzgerald, but he went one pick ahead of me (damn you Headbangers!). At this point, I ended up taking the 8th receiver off the board, following:

2 (15) S Smith
2 (16) C Johnson
2 (19) M Harrison
3 (21) T Holt
3 (22) T Owens
3 (23) R Wayne
3 (27) L Fitzgerald

Williams should catch his fair share of touchdowns this year from Kitna, and should be a lock for 1,000 yards +. All that & he's young with plenty of upside...especially since Calvin Johnson is now around to help draw some of the defense's attention away from Williams. Overall, I'm happy with this pick.

Picks around this selection - (26) D Brees, (27) L Fitzgerald, (28) R WILLIAMS, (29) C Benson, (30) M Bulger

4 (33) Antonio Gates, TE
I typically follow the same strategy for picking TE's that I use for QB's - don't reach & pick one early. I didn't follow this strategy in a baseball league with Joe Mauer this year (let's assume catcher in baseball = TE or QB in football) & it's killing me in this league (since I passed up Hanley Ramirez for Mauer)...although I also went against that strategy in another league & I've been quite happy with Victor Martinez's production in 2007...whatever. You usually don't get good bang for the buck when picking the top player at a weak position early in the draft.

That being said, I still picked him...and here is why. San Diego has a young, still mostly unproven WR core; meaning Gates will be turned to often, especially in the red zone (although I'll talk about Vincent Jackson in a few). Phillip Rivers is a young & improving QB, who will likely only rely on Gates more as they continue to build a rapport with one another. In addition, I was basically pissed that the player I was targeting (Marcus Colston) was taken one pick ahead my mine (for the second time in the draft - damn you The Wounded Healers!).

Once again, I was happy with this pick; as Gates should put up #1 WR type numbers across the board, even though he's a TE...not bad.

Picks around this selection - (31) A Johnson, (32) M Colston, (33) A GATES, (34) T Houshmandzadeh, (35) J Walker

5 (48) Brandon Jacobs, RB
Here is where I started to take some chances. Not that Jacobs can't be a fantasy beast this season; last year, in limited carries, he proved he can be a TD machine. But what impresses me more about Jacobs is his surprising speed, elusiveness, and soft hands & reception ability. I'm a little nervous with R Droughns waiting in the wings (and potentially sharing carries), but Jacobs has the potential to put up #1 RB-type numbers this year. In addition, he's still young...so he has immense upside as a potential keeper. He gives me the luxury of having 3 potential starting RB in a league that only starts 2 (with no flex positions).

In the 5th round, many of the second tier / unproven backs went off the board, so now was the time to pull the trigger on Jacobs. In this round, the following backs were selected:

A Peterson (Minn one)
C Williams
M Lynch
B Jacobs

This gives my team some flexibility, and I'm hoping he busts out big time, like some fantasy experts expect.

Picks around this selection - (46) Cal Johnson, (47) M Lynch, (48) B JACOBS, (49) L Coles, (50) D Jackson

6 (53) Braylon Edwards, WR
I decided to go with a guy from my home town team, the Cleveland Browns, to occupy my #2 WR position (which is up for debate, as you'll see later in my draft). I think Edwards will approach, if not exceed 1,000+ yards, score 7 - 10 TD, and be 'the man' for Charlie Frye, Brady Quinn, Bernie Kosar, or whomever is running the Browns offense. At times last year, Frye & Edwards seemed to start building a poor man's version of that Peyton Manning - Marvin Harrison thing...where the WR just knew where he needed to be to make the play; and the QB knew where the WR was going & delivered the ball...you know...

OK, that didn't quite transpire last year, but Edwards & Frye did seem comfortable & occasionally got into a good groove. Edwards even stuck up for Frye after the Browns drafted Brady Quinn in April. Any way you look at it, Edwards has enormous upside, runs good routes, and knows how to get into the end zone. I may have reached a bit with this pick (his average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo drafts is 59), but I'm confident that he'll be a solid fantasy contributor this year (or maybe I only believe that because I bleed orange & brown?).

Picks around this selection - (51) S Moss, (52) D Branch, (53) B EDWARDS, (54) M Barber III, (55) T Jones

I'll take a look at picks 7-15 in an upcoming post. Hopefully I ended up drafting a QB during that time...

Frank Gore Injured - May Miss Preseason

Frank Gore (RB) of the San Francisco 49ers, universally viewed as a top 10 fantasy football pick this season, broke a small bone in his right hand on Monday and will potentially be out through the preseason.

Early indications are that this injury should heal in approximately 4 weeks, although it will still put some doubt in the minds of people using their first round pick on an injured / recently injured player. All you have to do is think about Shaun Alexander, who many people argued should be the #1 overall pick in last year's draft, to see an example of what can happen when your first round pick is injured - it puts a serious damper on your chances to win, sometimes taking you out of contention immediately (depending upon your skill & luck with the rest of your picks). There is nothing more frustrating for a fantasy football owner than starting the season with your top player injured.

Fantasy Impact:
This injury makes drafting Gore a slightly riskier decision, but it shouldn't deter anyone from still selecting him in the first round. Gore was one of the top sleeper picks last season, getting drafted around pick 60 - 70, on average. This year, some writers have him ranked #1 overall, so obviously expectations are high. I am a bit concerned about his ability to hold on to the ball after returning from a right hand injury, as he did "lead" NFL running backs last season in fumbles lost with 5, but I think he's worth the risk. He will be a medium risk, very high reward pick this year, and at this point, I would pick him without hesitation if his name is still on the board from pick 5 forward in a fantasy draft.

Did you know - Frank Gore set a Dade County record for rushing yardage in a season in 2000 with 2,953 yards and 34 touchdowns in his senior year in high school.